Monday, October 29, 2012

Why I’m Dreading a Romney Presidency


There is a good chance that Mitt Romney will be our next president.  I’m dreading that possibility, and here is why.
1.       Romney will explode our national debt.

       I know that Romney has been promising that he will reduce our deficit and get our national

       debt under control.  That’s one of the main reasons people are voting for him.  But if you look at
       what he is proposing to do, that can’t happen. 

       You can’t start out with a trillion dollar deficit, cut taxes by $5 trillion, increase military spending

       by $2 trillion, and pledge not to increase any revenues without doing one of three things.  The
       first would be to eliminate virtually all income tax deductions including home mortgage interest
       deductions, state tax deductions, medical deductions, charitable deductions, earned income
       credits, and standard deductions for everyone; not just the wealthy.  The effect would be to
       transfer taxes from the wealthy to the middle class.  Romney says he has six studies that show
       that he won’t have to do that.  His “studies” consist of blog posts and editorials by conservative
       writers.  He can’t do it, so he will take his second option.  He will play accounting games and
       explode the deficit.  The third option would be to make draconian cuts in research, education,
       Medicaid, Medicare, infrastructure, veteran’s benefits, social welfare, and everything that
       supports the middle and lower classes.  That would be too unpopular.  He will choose to explode
       the deficits on the promise that things will get better later.

       Clearly Obama hasn’t made as much progress on reducing the deficit as we need, but despite

       what you probably have heard, he has been reducing it.  Here are the deficit numbers for the
       past few years:  2009-$1.41 trillion (Wall Street bailout), 2010-$1.29 trillion, 2011-1.30 trillion,
       2012-$1.09 trillion, 2013-$0.90 trillion (projected).  Those are still unacceptable numbers, but
       there is reason to expect them to continue to decrease as the economy improves.
2.       Romney will kill jobs.

Romney claims he will create jobs through his tax cuts, mostly for the wealthy, based on his extensive knowledge of how business works.  I’m not sure why people believe that running a takeover company gives you knowledge that would be useful in managing the national economy, but apparently they do. 

Our jobs market collapsed because the housing market collapsed, because financial mismanagement nearly caused our financial institutions to collapse, because of major problems in export markets, because of decades of sending our jobs overseas, because too much of our money has accumulated in the hands of a few people who can’t spend it, and in general due to an inadequate demand for our goods and services.  The idea that any significant part of it has to do with over-regulation, health-care uncertainty, or high taxes is ludicrous.

The job market is slowly improving, and the stimulus definitely did help in spite of the fact that Republican insistence on allocating 40% of it to tax cuts greatly reduced its effectiveness.  What is needed to further increase hiring is to take some of the money that has accumulated in the hands of the few and use it for productive spending.  Productive spending is not giving the money to free-loaders.  It is spending it in ways that make this a better place to do business and that create jobs in the process.  The best example is broadly defined infrastructure projects.  Not only do we need roads and bridges, but also better internet, railroads, airports, buried power cables, smart power grids, seaports, sewers, flood control, schools, hospitals, and telecommunications.  Smart spending also includes research, education, healthcare, public works, small-business incubators, conservation, clean energy, and public safety.  All of these will not only create jobs directly but will have a catalytic effect that creates even more jobs to support these activities.

Romney wants to do exactly the opposite.  He wants to give still more money to those who already can’t spend what they have, and he wants an austerity budget that will kill hundreds of thousands of government jobs and jobs that depend on them.  He loves to say that government doesn’t create jobs.  Try telling that to the 1.8 million people, including all of the politicians, who work for the federal government, and that doesn’t include the post office or military.
3.       Romney will appoint activist, conservative Supreme Court judges.

Romney may say that he is not against abortion in cases of rape, incest, or to preserve the life of the mother, but when he appoints still more activist, conservative Supreme Court judges like Scalia,  Row v. Wade will be overturned.  When that happens, all protections for abortion disappear.  The states and federal government can pass whatever laws they want, and as we have already seen, some of those will be pretty amazing.  Certainly a personhood amendment declaring that a fertilized egg has all the protections of an actual born human being will be one of them.  That will eliminate all abortions for the poor. The rich of course will still just go to another country as they did prior to Row v. Wade.  It will also eliminate most kinds of birth control and in vitro fertilization.

I’m old enough to remember when women had their lives ruined or even ended by back-alley butchers.  I don’t want to go back there.  If you believe that life begins at the instant of conception (which by the way takes several minutes or even hours) then don’t have an abortion, but please recognize that many of our citizens don’t see it that way, and don’t force your religious beliefs on them.

We can also expect more cases like the Citizens United decision.  In addition to giving corporations and foreign governments unbelievable influence over our elections, it has already allowed companies to start telling their employees how to vote.   Corporations are not people.  No serious, unbiased judge could ever conclude that they are.

The courts have been the most important protector of our rights over the past 50 years.  I’d like for it to stay that way.
4.       Romney will strip important regulations from our system.

It has become apparent over the past 30 years that a president doesn’t need to overturn a regulation or law he disagrees with.  All he needs to do is either to appoint no one or to appoint someone who doesn’t believe in the regulation to head the department enforcing the it.  Alternatively, he can fail to fund the responsible department.

Capitalism is a wonderful system, but it needs to be regulated.  Corporations will nearly always do the thing that makes the most money regardless of the impact it has on the public good.  Without regulation, Detroit would still be making gas guzzling, unsafe automobiles that pollute the environment.  Without regulation, unscrupulous companies would still be selling patent medicines that not only don’t help people but that actually hurt them.  Without regulation, our bank deposits wouldn’t be secure.  Without regulation, our financial institutions would bring our economy to the brink of collapse again.  Of course some regulations are overzealous or poorly conceived.  We need to fix those, but that doesn’t mean that we need to start throwing out regulations right and left to “help create jobs.”
5.       Romney will get us into a stupid war.

Romney is a rank amateur when it comes to foreign policy.  He’s a businessman.  Has it normally been your experience that business executives have a good knowledge of foreign affairs?  Of course he will have advisors just as Bush the Second did.  Of course they will drag us into stupid wars, just like Cheney did.  Romney obviously believes that if he just spends enough on our military, Iran will be so afraid that they will just do what we want just like he thinks the USSR did under Reagan.  That wasn’t why the USSR collapsed, and it won’t work with Iran.  It’s a really scary prospect to have someone with absolutely no idea what they are doing running our military and foreign policy.
6.       Romney will waste four more years not doing anything about global climate change.

Honestly, I don’t know whether Obama will do anything about global climate change either, but I do know that Romney will not.  Climate change is real.  It is caused by human activity.  It will have catastrophic results.  Many of us will live to see it.  The clock is running.
7.       Romney does not really believe in church/state separation.

Separation of church and state is good for the state, and it is good for the church.  If you want to find a country where they don’t take religion seriously, look for one with a state religion.  The whole right wing of the Republican Party, which Romney has so heartily endorsed, doesn’t believe in separation of church and state.  I do.  I don’t want to see it end.


8.    Romney will try to get rid of Obamacare.

       Maybe other people don't mind paying $2,000 per year in increased medical costs to cover the expenses of those who choose not to get insurance and get their medical care through the emergency room at our expense.  I do mind.  Obamacare will stop that.

Why is it a bad thing for 30 million people who get minimal medical care because they have no insurance
to now have a way to take care of themselves and their children?  I think it's a good thing?

       I like that people with pre-existing conditions will be able to get insurance, that people won't
       lose their insurance because they exceed some lifetime cap or change jobs, that older youth can stay on their parents' policies until they get established, that insurance companies have a limit on how much they can spend on administrative and executive costs, and that people won't go bankrupt because of unforeseen medical expenses.

       We were the only major democracy in the world that didn't provide medical care for all of its citizens.  Obamacare is far from perfect.  It would be much better if Obama hadn't made so many concessions to the Republicans who ended up not supporting it anyway, but it is way better than where we were.
The one area where Romney may actually be an improvement over President Obama is in working with Congress.  Although they will certainly be partisans, I do not believe that the Democrats will put up the iron wall that the Republicans have in which all considerations of what is good for the country will be cast aside in pursuit of what is good for the party.  In case after case the Republicans have been united in their opposition to ideas that were originally theirs and that they sponsored bills to establish, just because President Obama came out in favor of them.  It is truly the most cynical thing I have ever seen to throw the country under the bus repeatedly by obstructing anything Obama wanted to do no matter how good for the country and then criticize him for not getting enough done.  The Democrats will not do that, so Romney wins on this one.